If you believe what the inverted Treasury yield curve is saying, you must believe that, eventually — but probably sooner rather than later — the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates in response to the economic recession it will have caused by raising rates by more than 400 basis points in the past year.
But based on the strength of the economy despite those higher rates, it’s looking more like rates well above 4% – and possibly 5% — are going to be around for a long time to come.
But that’s not necessarily such a bad thing. For all those younger than 40, 4-5% long-term interest rates had been the norm for decades.
But that era looks to be over. And it looks like we’re managing.
Even though inflation appears to…
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