Analyzing Whether a New S&P 500 Addition is a Buy

Vancouver, Canada-based athleisure fashion retailer Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) is set to join the S&P 500 index on October 18, replacing video-game company Activision Blizzard Inc., which Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) recently acquired for $68.7 billion after crossing numerous regulatory hurdles. The announcement was greeted with a more than 10% surge in LULU’s shares.

Historically, the news of inclusion in the S&P 500 positively impacted stocks, usually driven by increased liquidity and heightened interest from individual and institutional investors.

Let’s look into the investment cases for the activewear giant’s shares.

Boasting a market cap of over $50 billion, LULU continues its stride amid the turbulence rattling the broader apparel industry. The company has leveraged the pandemic-driven trend of home exercising, acquiring smart fitness platform Mirror for $500 million to tap into the flourishing at-home fitness sector. This acquisition was intended to fuel further purchases of LULU clothing.

However, this landmark M&A transaction faced obstacles in its course. As pandemic restrictions eased globally, a rush toward gyms and fitness studios saw Mirror struggling to retain users. Consequently, LULU had to write down the value of Mirror to a mere $58 million, even considering its sale. By year-end, LULU intends to discontinue the sales of Lululemon Studio Mirror, though service and support will continue for existing customers.

The company underwent a branding exercise, re-emphasizing its product as Lululemon Studio, shifting the attention toward Mirror’s subscription app instead of the hardware device. Despite the setbacks faced by Mirror, LULU’s agility in course-correcting failures speaks volumes of its ability to manage risks, propelling itself into becoming not just a top sportswear brand but also making its debut on the Fortune 500 list.

Recognizing a post-pandemic shift in the fitness industry, LULU has forged a strategic five-year partnership with connected exercise bike manufacturer Peloton Interactive (PTON). This alliance positions LULU as Peloton’s leading athletic apparel partner, with select PTON instructors serving as LULU’s brand ambassadors.

However, industry analysts voiced skepticism about the potential marketing benefits, indicating that many PTON users may already be buyers of LULU products. Regardless, the partnership presents evident synergies and opportunities for joint promotion, expected to arise from exclusive product offerings and extended services across both brands, and the advantages attributed to increased scale and reach.

In addition to bike sales, PTON has demonstrated prowess in content creation, live streaming, and launching innovative classes, setting itself apart in the industry. The burgeoning collaboration with PTON bodes well for LULU as it continues to invest in its Studio platform.

LULU’s reputation as a fashion retailer catering to affluent consumers has been instrumental in fueling its growth, pointing to its contribution to the conception of the “athleisure” trend, combining fit and high-quality fabric. The company’s gradual expansion into menswear and the recent foray into golf and hiking attire is noteworthy.

Moreover, its experimental approach and avoidance of “analysis paralysis” – an issue that has slowed down many retailers’ adaptability to new consumer preferences – have significantly contributed to LULU’s success.

Despite industry-wide challenges, LULU experienced robust growth so far. Its home base, Canada, alongside the U.S., accounted for 78% of its revenue in the second quarter of 2023. During this quarter, the company opened 10 new company-operated stores, totaling 672 stores worldwide.

It also anticipates considerable growth opportunities internationally, particularly in the U.K. and China. LULU is poised to quadruple its international sales, buoyed by remarkable growth in

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